Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 17

Modena–Venezia

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 December 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena

Goals and red cards

38'VeneziaJohn Yeboah
74'VeneziaAntonio Casas (assist: Ridgeciano Haps)
90'ModenaF. Di Mariano (assist: Pedro Mendes)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Modena		Venezia
10	Shots	18
2	Shots on target	8
5	Shots inside the box	12
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	5
3	Offsides	1
38%	Possession	62%
290	Passes	493
227	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Modena 1.24 · Venezia 1.15. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Modena 10 · Venezia 18; on target 2 and 8.
Venezia kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Giuseppe Mucera, Italy→

3.14

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.4%: “Modena to win”. Second comes “Venezia to win” at 32.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Modena, 1.15 for Venezia.
The highest double chance value is 70.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,301 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Modena to win37.4%

Draw29.8%

Venezia to win32.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Modena lead at half-time15.8%

Level at half-time44.0%

Venezia lead at half-time40.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Modena ahead or level59.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Venezia ahead84.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1301 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Modena: at least 13Actual: 7
Venezia: at least 14Actual: 12

Corners

Modena: at least 5Actual: 5
Venezia: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Modena score1.24

Attack: Modena score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Venezia concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Venezia score1.15

Attack: Venezia score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: Modena concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.15 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–010.5%0–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.