Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 16

Juve Stabia–Empoli

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 December 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

12'Juve StabiaA. Giorgini (assist: F. Maistro)
63'Juve StabiaL. Carissoni (assist: F. Maistro)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Juve Stabia		Empoli
8	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	5
4	Offsides	5
52%	Possession	48%
394	Passes	349
325	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Juve Stabia 1.32 · Empoli 1.01. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Juve Stabia 8 · Empoli 10; on target 5 and 1.

Referee

Alberto Ruben Arena, Italy→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.1%: “Juve Stabia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Juve Stabia, 1.01 for Empoli.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (1X — Juve Stabia win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,291 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Juve Stabia to win43.1%

Draw29.7%

Empoli to win27.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	18

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Juve Stabia lead at half-time37.4%

Level at half-time43.9%

Empoli lead at half-time18.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Juve Stabia ahead or level81.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Empoli ahead62.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1291 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Juve Stabia: at least 15Actual: 20
Empoli: at least 15Actual: 18

Corners

Juve Stabia: at least 5Actual: 5
Empoli: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Juve Stabia score1.32

Attack: Juve Stabia score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Empoli's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Empoli score1.01

Attack: Empoli score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Juve Stabia's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–012.1%0–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.