Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 15

Monza–Sudtirol

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 8 December 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: U-Power Stadium, Monza

Goals and red cards

32'MonzaM. Marić (assist: Andrea Carboni)
76'SudtirolR. Odogwu

Match statistics

Match statistics
Monza		Sudtirol
11	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	0
0	Offsides	1
63%	Possession	37%
561	Passes	325
473	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Monza 1.77 · Sudtirol 0.67. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Monza 11 · Sudtirol 13; on target 5 and 3.
Monza kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Giovanni Ayroldi, Italy→

4.67

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.2%: “Monza to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.77 for Monza, 0.67 for Sudtirol.
The highest double chance value is 87.7% (1X — Monza win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,283 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Monza to win64.2%

Draw23.6%

Sudtirol to win12.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 848 of 1,355 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	21

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Monza lead at half-time40.2%

Level at half-time43.2%

Sudtirol lead at half-time16.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Monza ahead or level83.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Sudtirol ahead59.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1283 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Monza: at least 13Actual: 15
Sudtirol: at least 14Actual: 21

Corners

Monza: at least 5
Sudtirol: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Monza score1.77

Attack: Monza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sudtirol's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.77 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sudtirol score0.67

Attack: Sudtirol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Monza concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.9%2–014.1%1–111.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.