Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 15

Avellino–Venezia

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 8 December 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Avellino

Goals and red cards

41'AvellinoF. Missori (assist: D. Sounas)
51'VeneziaM. Svoboda (assist: John Yeboah)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Avellino		Venezia
2	Shots	26
2	Shots on target	10
2	Shots inside the box	20
9	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	10
2	Offsides	1
28%	Possession	72%
231	Passes	568
158	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Avellino 0.94 · Venezia 1.68. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Avellino 2 · Venezia 26; on target 2 and 10.
Venezia kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

Kevin Bonacina, Italy→

4.00

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.8%: “Venezia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.94 for Avellino, 1.68 for Venezia.
The highest double chance value is 80.6% (X2 — draw or Venezia win).
These values were computed from 1,283 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Avellino to win19.4%

Draw25.8%

Venezia to win54.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	21

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Avellino win or draw45.2%

12 — any result other than a draw74.2%

X2 — draw or Venezia win80.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.8%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Avellino lead at half-time6.2%

Level at half-time33.6%

Venezia lead at half-time60.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Avellino ahead or level39.8%

12 — not level at half-time66.4%

X2 — level or Venezia ahead93.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1283 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Avellino: at least 12Actual: 15
Venezia: at least 15Actual: 21

Corners

Avellino: at least 4Actual: 2
Venezia: at least 4Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Avellino score0.94

Attack: Avellino score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Venezia concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Venezia score1.68

Attack: Venezia score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Avellino concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 1.68 goals.

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%0–111.5%1–210.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1283 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 14 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.