Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 15

Sampdoria–Carrarese

3–2

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 December 2025 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

2'CarrareseFabio Abiuso (assist: M. Finotto)
18'SampdoriaM. Coda (assist: S. Pafundi)
26'CarrareseFabio Abiuso (assist: S. Zanon)
36'SampdoriaL. Henderson (assist: M. Coda)
82'SampdoriaM. Coda (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sampdoria		Carrarese
15	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	1
2	Offsides	0
57%	Possession	43%
454	Passes	349
372	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sampdoria 1.42 · Carrarese 0.95. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Sampdoria 15 · Carrarese 7; on target 7 and 3.
Sampdoria kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Simone Sozza, Italy→

3.75

yellows per match

0.75

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.6%: “Sampdoria to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Sampdoria, 0.95 for Carrarese.
The highest double chance value is 76.3% (1X — Sampdoria win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,281 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sampdoria to win47.6%

Draw28.7%

Carrarese to win23.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

21	Fouls	13

7	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

Sampdoria lead at half-time22.6%

Level at half-time47.7%

Carrarese lead at half-time29.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Sampdoria ahead or level70.3%

12 — not level at half-time52.3%

X2 — level or Carrarese ahead77.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1281 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sampdoria: at least 14Actual: 21
Carrarese: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Sampdoria: at least 4Actual: 7
Carrarese: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sampdoria score1.42

Attack: Sampdoria score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Carrarese's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Carrarese score0.95

Attack: Carrarese score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sampdoria's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–012.6%2–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.