Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 14

Juve Stabia–Monza

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 November 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

19'MonzaSamuele Birindelli
31'Juve StabiaL. Candellone
68'MonzaA. Petagna (assist: A. Izzo)
83'Juve StabiaF. Maistro

Match statistics

Match statistics
Juve Stabia		Monza
9	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	5
5	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	5
2	Offsides	0
62%	Possession	38%
521	Passes	312
436	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Juve Stabia 0.91 · Monza 1.14. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Juve Stabia 9 · Monza 11; on target 4 and 5.
Juve Stabia kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta, Italy→

4.80

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.2%: “Monza to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 32.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.91 for Juve Stabia, 1.14 for Monza.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (X2 — draw or Monza win).
These values were computed from 1,277 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Juve Stabia to win27.7%

Draw32.1%

Monza to win40.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Juve Stabia lead at half-time28.1%

Level at half-time46.7%

Monza lead at half-time25.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Juve Stabia ahead or level74.8%

12 — not level at half-time53.3%

X2 — level or Monza ahead71.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1277 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Juve Stabia: at least 14Actual: 13
Monza: at least 14Actual: 15

Corners

Juve Stabia: at least 4Actual: 3
Monza: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Juve Stabia score0.91

Attack: Juve Stabia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Monza concede 37% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Monza score1.14

Attack: Monza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Juve Stabia concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%0–114.1%0–012.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.