Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 13

Monza–Cesena

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 November 2025 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: U-Power Stadium, Monza

Goals and red cards

37'MonzaPedro Obiang (assist: D. Mota)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Monza		Cesena
14	Shots	15
1	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	0
6	Corners	7
0	Offsides	6
52%	Possession	48%
555	Passes	502
485	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Monza 1.38 · Cesena 0.78. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Monza 14 · Cesena 15; on target 1 and 4.

Referee

Giuseppe Mucera, Italy→

3.60

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.9%: “Monza to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for Monza, 0.78 for Cesena.
The highest double chance value is 80.3% (1X — Monza win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,267 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Monza to win50.9%

Draw29.4%

Cesena to win19.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

3	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 469 of 1,102 predictions were correct (42.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Monza win or draw80.3%

12 — any result other than a draw70.6%

X2 — draw or Cesena win49.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.4%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Monza lead at half-time31.5%

Level at half-time45.7%

Cesena lead at half-time22.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Monza ahead or level77.1%

12 — not level at half-time54.3%

X2 — level or Cesena ahead68.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1267 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Monza: at least 13Actual: 3
Cesena: at least 14Actual: 9

Corners

Monza: at least 4Actual: 6
Cesena: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (45.4%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Monza score1.38

Attack: Monza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cesena concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cesena score0.78

Attack: Cesena score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Monza concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.78 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.4%1–114.3%2–011.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1267 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 12 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.