Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 13

Avellino–Empoli

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 November 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Avellino

Goals and red cards

17'EmpoliS. Elia (assist: B. Moruzzi)
45'EmpoliE. Saporiti
90'EmpoliP. Pellegri (assist: S. Elia)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Avellino		Empoli
9	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	9
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
58%	Possession	42%
520	Passes	375
433	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Avellino 1.45 · Empoli 1.19. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Avellino 9 · Empoli 13; on target 3 and 4.
Avellino kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Francesco Fourneau, Italy→

4.40

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.5%: “Avellino to win”. Second comes “Empoli to win” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for Avellino, 1.19 for Empoli.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,260 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Avellino to win42.5%

Draw27.9%

Empoli to win29.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	19

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Avellino win or draw70.3%

12 — any result other than a draw72.1%

X2 — draw or Empoli win57.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–2

Avellino lead at half-time29.6%

Level at half-time42.5%

Empoli lead at half-time28.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Avellino ahead or level72.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or Empoli ahead70.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1260 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Avellino: at least 13Actual: 8
Empoli: at least 15Actual: 19

Corners

Avellino: at least 4Actual: 6
Empoli: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Avellino score1.45

Attack: Avellino score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Empoli concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Empoli score1.19

Attack: Empoli score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Avellino concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%2–19.8%1–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1260 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 12 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.