Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 12

Frosinone–Modena

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 November 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone

Goals and red cards

9'FrosinoneI. Koutsoupias (assist: Giorgi Kvernadze)
50'FrosinoneGiacomo Calò (assist: I. Koutsoupias)
56'ModenaF. Zampano
89'ModenaYanis Massolin (assist: G. Defrel)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Frosinone		Modena
8	Shots	21
4	Shots on target	6
4	Shots inside the box	16
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	8
2	Offsides	3
41%	Possession	59%
266	Passes	370
190	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Frosinone 1.32 · Modena 1.19. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Frosinone 8 · Modena 21; on target 4 and 6.
Modena kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Alberto Ruben Arena, Italy→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.7%: “Frosinone to win”. Second comes “Modena to win” at 32.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Frosinone, 1.19 for Modena.
The highest double chance value is 71.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,250 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Frosinone to win38.7%

Draw28.9%

Modena to win32.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Frosinone win or draw67.6%

12 — any result other than a draw71.1%

X2 — draw or Modena win61.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.9%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Frosinone lead at half-time40.1%

Level at half-time41.8%

Modena lead at half-time18.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Frosinone ahead or level81.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or Modena ahead59.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1250 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Frosinone: at least 13Actual: 13
Modena: at least 15Actual: 14

Corners

Frosinone: at least 4Actual: 5
Modena: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals46.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Frosinone score1.32

Attack: Frosinone score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Modena concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Modena score1.19

Attack: Modena score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Frosinone's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–09.8%2–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1250 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 87 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.