Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 11

Sampdoria–Mantova

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 November 2025 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

87'MantovaF. Ruocco (assist: N. Radaelli)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sampdoria		Mantova
14	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
11	Corners	6
1	Offsides	2
45%	Possession	55%
326	Passes	428
258	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sampdoria 1.56 · Mantova 1.12. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Sampdoria 14 · Mantova 8; on target 2 and 2.
Mantova kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Giuseppe Mucera, Italy→

4.00

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.0%: “Sampdoria to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.56 for Sampdoria, 1.12 for Mantova.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (1X — Sampdoria win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,248 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sampdoria to win47.0%

Draw27.1%

Mantova to win25.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

18	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sampdoria win or draw74.1%

12 — any result other than a draw72.9%

X2 — draw or Mantova win53.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sampdoria lead at half-time31.9%

Level at half-time45.3%

Mantova lead at half-time22.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Sampdoria ahead or level77.2%

12 — not level at half-time54.7%

X2 — level or Mantova ahead68.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1248 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sampdoria: at least 17Actual: 18
Mantova: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Sampdoria: at least 4Actual: 11
Mantova: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals50.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sampdoria score1.56

Attack: Sampdoria score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mantova concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mantova score1.12

Attack: Mantova score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sampdoria's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%2–110.3%1–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1248 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 48 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.