Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 10

Venezia–Sudtirol

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 29 October 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

39'VeneziaI. Doumbia (assist: Kike Pérez)
45'VeneziaKike Pérez (assist: G. Busio)
67'VeneziaJohn Yeboah (assist: Kike Pérez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Venezia		Sudtirol
17	Shots	4
4	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	4
3	Offsides	2
74%	Possession	26%
669	Passes	222
582	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Venezia 1.82 · Sudtirol 0.93. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Venezia 17 · Sudtirol 4; on target 4 and 2.
Venezia kept the ball more (74%).

Referee

Ermanno Feliciani, Italy→

3.75

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.4%: “Venezia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.82 for Venezia, 0.93 for Sudtirol.
The highest double chance value is 82.6% (1X — Venezia win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,236 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Venezia to win58.4%

Draw24.2%

Sudtirol to win17.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	18

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Venezia win or draw82.6%

12 — any result other than a draw75.8%

X2 — draw or Sudtirol win41.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.2%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Venezia lead at half-time47.9%

Level at half-time39.5%

Sudtirol lead at half-time12.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Venezia ahead or level87.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.5%

X2 — level or Sudtirol ahead52.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1236 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Venezia: at least 13Actual: 9
Sudtirol: at least 15Actual: 18

Corners

Venezia: at least 4Actual: 1
Sudtirol: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals52.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Venezia score1.82

Attack: Venezia score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Sudtirol's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.82 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sudtirol score0.93

Attack: Sudtirol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Venezia's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%2–110.9%1–010.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1236 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 85 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.