Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 5

Venezia–Spezia

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 September 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

8'SpeziaL. Vignali · red card
29'VeneziaA. Adorante (penalty)
54'VeneziaS. Korač (assist: B. Bjarkason)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Venezia		Spezia
11	Shots	5
3	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	2
1	Offsides	3
74%	Possession	26%
639	Passes	221
585	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Venezia 1.44 · Spezia 1.31. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Venezia 11 · Spezia 5; on target 3 and 2.
Venezia kept the ball more (74%).

Referee

Michael Fabbri, Italy→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.4%: “Venezia to win”. Second comes “Spezia to win” at 33.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Venezia, 1.31 for Spezia.
The highest double chance value is 72.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,181 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Venezia to win39.4%

Draw27.5%

Spezia to win33.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	20

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Venezia lead at half-time43.2%

Level at half-time41.4%

Spezia lead at half-time15.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Venezia ahead or level84.6%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Spezia ahead56.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1181 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Venezia: at least 15Actual: 19
Spezia: at least 13Actual: 20

Corners

Venezia: at least 4Actual: 7
Spezia: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Venezia score1.44

Attack: Venezia score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Spezia's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Spezia score1.31

Attack: Spezia score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Venezia's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%2–19.5%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.