Championship · England · Final

Hull City–Middlesbrough

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 23 May 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Wembley Stadium, London

Goals and red cards

90'Hull CityO. McBurnie

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hull City		Middlesbrough
9	Shots	13
2	Shots on target	0
6	Shots inside the box	7
0	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	3
1	Offsides	3
32%	Possession	68%
293	Passes	608
210	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hull City 1.14 · Middlesbrough 1.58. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Hull City 9 · Middlesbrough 13; on target 2 and 0.
Middlesbrough kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

J. Gillett→

3.88

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.8%: “Middlesbrough to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.14 for Hull City, 1.58 for Middlesbrough.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (X2 — draw or Middlesbrough win).
These values were computed from 2,208 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hull City to win26.3%

Draw26.9%

Middlesbrough to win46.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	2

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Hull City win or draw53.2%

12 — any result other than a draw73.1%

X2 — draw or Middlesbrough win73.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hull City lead at half-time31.2%

Level at half-time41.9%

Middlesbrough lead at half-time26.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Hull City ahead or level73.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Middlesbrough ahead68.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2208 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hull City: at least 11Actual: 6
Middlesbrough: at least 9Actual: 2

Corners

Hull City: at least 4Actual: 1
Middlesbrough: at least 5Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hull City score1.14

Attack: Hull City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Middlesbrough concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Middlesbrough score1.58

Attack: Middlesbrough score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Hull City concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–210.3%0–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.