Championship · England · Semi-finals

Hull City–Millwall

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 8 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hull City		Millwall
6	Shots	15
1	Shots on target	2
3	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
0	Corners	5
2	Offsides	2
39%	Possession	61%
262	Passes	428
161	Accurate passes	338
6

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hull City 1.30 · Millwall 1.37. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Hull City 6 · Millwall 15; on target 1 and 2.
Millwall kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

G. Ward→

3.68

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.8%: “Millwall to win”. Second comes “Hull City to win” at 34.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.30 for Hull City, 1.37 for Millwall.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,208 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hull City to win34.2%

Draw28.0%

Millwall to win37.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hull City lead at half-time31.5%

Level at half-time44.7%

Millwall lead at half-time23.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Hull City ahead or level76.2%

12 — not level at half-time55.3%

X2 — level or Millwall ahead68.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2208 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hull City: at least 9Actual: 6
Millwall: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Hull City: at least 5
Millwall: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hull City score1.30

Attack: Hull City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Millwall's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Millwall score1.37

Attack: Millwall score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hull City concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–29.2%2–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.