Championship · England · Regular Season - 46

Wrexham–Middlesbrough

2–2

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'MiddlesbroughT. Conway
28'WrexhamJ. Windass
41'WrexhamS. Smith (assist: I. Kaboré)
44'MiddlesbroughD. Strelec (assist: M. Targett)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Wrexham		Middlesbrough
20	Shots	11
8	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	3
1	Offsides	3
48%	Possession	52%
449	Passes	489
368	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Wrexham 1.16 · Middlesbrough 1.43. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Wrexham 20 · Middlesbrough 11; on target 8 and 5.

Referee

O. Langford→

3.38

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.5%: “Middlesbrough to win”. Second comes “Wrexham to win” at 30.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for Wrexham, 1.63 for Middlesbrough.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,196 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Wrexham to win30.4%

Draw26.1%

Middlesbrough to win43.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	5

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Wrexham win or draw56.5%

12 — any result other than a draw73.9%

X2 — draw or Middlesbrough win69.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.1%).

First half

Actual: 2–2

Wrexham lead at half-time27.0%

Level at half-time42.9%

Middlesbrough lead at half-time30.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Wrexham ahead or level69.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Middlesbrough ahead73.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2196 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Wrexham: at least 10Actual: 11
Middlesbrough: at least 8Actual: 5

Corners

Wrexham: at least 4Actual: 6
Middlesbrough: at least 5Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals58.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Wrexham score1.16

Attack: Wrexham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Middlesbrough concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Middlesbrough score1.43

Attack: Middlesbrough score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Wrexham's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%1–210.0%2–18.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2196 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 45 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.