Championship · England · Regular Season - 46

Portsmouth–Birmingham

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fratton Park, Portsmouth

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'PortsmouthA. Segecic (assist: J. Williams)
19'BirminghamA. Priske (assist: K. Wagner)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Portsmouth		Birmingham
14	Shots	13
2	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	9
0	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
274	Passes	253
191	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Portsmouth 1.21 · Birmingham 1.19. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Portsmouth 14 · Birmingham 13; on target 2 and 5.

Referee

J. Brooks→

4.54

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.3%: “Birmingham to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for Portsmouth, 1.62 for Birmingham.
The highest double chance value is 73.8% (X2 — draw or Birmingham win).
These values were computed from 2,196 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Portsmouth to win26.2%

Draw26.5%

Birmingham to win47.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Portsmouth win or draw52.7%

12 — any result other than a draw73.5%

X2 — draw or Birmingham win73.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.5%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Portsmouth lead at half-time30.9%

Level at half-time43.3%

Birmingham lead at half-time25.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Portsmouth ahead or level74.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Birmingham ahead69.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2196 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Portsmouth: at least 9Actual: 19
Birmingham: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

Portsmouth: at least 5Actual: 3
Birmingham: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Portsmouth score1.21

Attack: Portsmouth score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Birmingham's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Birmingham score1.19

Attack: Birmingham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Portsmouth's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%1–210.4%0–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2196 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 91 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.