Championship · England · Regular Season - 46

Swansea–Charlton

3–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

74'SwanseaA. Idah (assist: J. Key)
79'CharltonM. Leaburn (assist: S. Carey)
82'SwanseaA. Idah (assist: T. Woodward)
88'SwanseaL. Walta

Match statistics

Match statistics
Swansea		Charlton
20	Shots	12
8	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
10	Corners	4
4	Offsides	1
72%	Possession	28%
619	Passes	239
541	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Swansea 1.47 · Charlton 0.97. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Swansea 20 · Charlton 12; on target 8 and 3.
Swansea kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

W. Finnie→

4.28

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.5%: “Swansea to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.79 for Swansea, 1.09 for Charlton.
The highest double chance value is 78.4% (1X — Swansea win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,196 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Swansea to win53.5%

Draw24.9%

Charlton to win21.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

5	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Swansea win or draw78.4%

12 — any result other than a draw75.1%

X2 — draw or Charlton win46.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Swansea lead at half-time37.7%

Level at half-time44.9%

Charlton lead at half-time17.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Swansea ahead or level82.5%

12 — not level at half-time55.1%

X2 — level or Charlton ahead62.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2196 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Swansea: at least 8Actual: 5
Charlton: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

Swansea: at least 5Actual: 10
Charlton: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Swansea score1.47

Attack: Swansea score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Charlton's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Charlton score0.97

Attack: Charlton score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Swansea's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%2–110.8%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2196 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 45 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.