Championship · England · Regular Season - 46

Derby–Sheffield Utd

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Pride Park Stadium, Derby

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'DerbyS. Szmodics
62'Sheffield UtdT. Cannon (assist: P. Bamford)
69'Sheffield UtdSydie Peck (assist: G. Hamer)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Derby		Sheffield Utd
17	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	8
13	Shots inside the box	11
6	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	4
2	Offsides	1
51%	Possession	49%
372	Passes	376
271	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Derby 1.39 · Sheffield Utd 1.24. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Derby 17 · Sheffield Utd 15; on target 6 and 8.

Referee

T. Nield→

3.96

yellows per match

0.04

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.0%: “Derby to win”. Second comes “Sheffield Utd to win” at 26.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.73 for Derby, 1.26 for Sheffield Utd.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,196 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Derby to win48.0%

Draw25.5%

Sheffield Utd to win26.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	12

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Derby lead at half-time34.3%

Level at half-time43.2%

Sheffield Utd lead at half-time22.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Derby ahead or level77.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Sheffield Utd ahead65.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2196 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Derby: at least 11Actual: 13
Sheffield Utd: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Derby: at least 4Actual: 6
Sheffield Utd: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Derby score1.39

Attack: Derby score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Utd's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sheffield Utd score1.24

Attack: Sheffield Utd score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Derby's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%2–110.5%1–07.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.