Championship · England · Regular Season - 46

Hull City–Norwich

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'NorwichM. Touré (assist: A. Ben Slimane)
28'Hull CityO. McBurnie (penalty)
67'Hull CityO. McBurnie (assist: M. Crooks)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hull City		Norwich
8	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	9
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
1	Corners	7
2	Offsides	0
35%	Possession	65%
256	Passes	481
159	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hull City 1.36 · Norwich 1.39. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Hull City 8 · Norwich 12; on target 6 and 2.
Norwich kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

J. Smith→

4.08

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.9%: “Hull City to win”. Second comes “Norwich to win” at 29.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.77 for Hull City, 1.39 for Norwich.
The highest double chance value is 74.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,196 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hull City to win45.9%

Draw25.1%

Norwich to win29.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hull City win or draw71.0%

12 — any result other than a draw74.9%

X2 — draw or Norwich win54.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.1%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Hull City lead at half-time39.8%

Level at half-time41.3%

Norwich lead at half-time18.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Hull City ahead or level81.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.7%

X2 — level or Norwich ahead60.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2196 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hull City: at least 10Actual: 10
Norwich: at least 9Actual: 15

Corners

Hull City: at least 4Actual: 1
Norwich: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals62.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hull City score1.36

Attack: Hull City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Norwich's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Norwich score1.39

Attack: Norwich score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hull City concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%2–110.2%1–27.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2196 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 183 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.