Championship · England · Regular Season - 46

Millwall–Oxford United

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The Den, London

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'MillwallF. Azeez (assist: M. Ivanovic)
48'MillwallF. Azeez

Match statistics

Match statistics
Millwall		Oxford United
21	Shots	5
8	Shots on target	1
15	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
14	Corners	1
2	Offsides	0
67%	Possession	33%
547	Passes	290
469	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Millwall 1.52 · Oxford United 0.95. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Millwall 21 · Oxford United 5; on target 8 and 1.
Millwall kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

A. Backhouse→

4.54

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.4%: “Millwall to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.27 for Millwall, 0.84 for Oxford United.
The highest double chance value is 89.1% (1X — Millwall win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,196 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Millwall to win70.4%

Draw18.7%

Oxford United to win10.9%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Millwall lead at half-time40.2%

Level at half-time43.6%

Oxford United lead at half-time16.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Millwall ahead or level83.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.4%

X2 — level or Oxford United ahead59.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2196 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Millwall: at least 11Actual: 8
Oxford United: at least 9Actual: 6

Corners

Millwall: at least 6Actual: 14
Oxford United: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Millwall score1.52

Attack: Millwall score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Oxford United's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Oxford United score0.95

Attack: Oxford United score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Millwall's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.8%2–110.6%1–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.