Championship · England · Regular Season - 45

Oxford United–Sheffield Wednesday

4–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'Oxford UnitedW. Lankshear (assist: S. Mills)
27'Oxford UnitedW. Lankshear (assist: M. Peart-Harris)
67'Oxford UnitedW. Vaulks
72'Sheffield WednesdayW. Grainger (assist: N. Chalobah)
73'Oxford UnitedM. Peart-Harris (assist: W. Lankshear)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Oxford United		Sheffield Wednesday
20	Shots	10
10	Shots on target	4
13	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
51%	Possession	49%
389	Passes	384
306	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Oxford United 1.65 · Sheffield Wednesday 0.83. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Oxford United 20 · Sheffield Wednesday 10; on target 10 and 4.

Referee

R. Madley→

4.50

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.5%: “Oxford United to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.85 for Oxford United, 0.84 for Sheffield Wednesday.
The highest double chance value is 85.0% (1X — Oxford United win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,188 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Oxford United to win61.5%

Draw23.4%

Sheffield Wednesday to win15.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Oxford United lead at half-time42.6%

Level at half-time42.4%

Sheffield Wednesday lead at half-time15.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Oxford United ahead or level85.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Sheffield Wednesday ahead57.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2188 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Oxford United: at least 9Actual: 14
Sheffield Wednesday: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Oxford United: at least 5Actual: 5
Sheffield Wednesday: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Oxford United score1.65

Attack: Oxford United score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Wednesday concede 37% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sheffield Wednesday score0.83

Attack: Sheffield Wednesday score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Oxford United's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.83 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.9%1–111.9%1–011.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.