Championship · England · Regular Season - 45

Norwich–Swansea

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

53'SwanseaZ. Vipotnik (penalty)
83'NorwichK. McLean (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Norwich		Swansea
16	Shots	8
8	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	8
5	Corners	2
0	Offsides	2
51%	Possession	49%
432	Passes	424
335	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Norwich 1.51 · Swansea 1.09. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Norwich 16 · Swansea 8; on target 8 and 2.

Referee

T. Parsons→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.3%: “Norwich to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.88 for Norwich, 1.03 for Swansea.
The highest double chance value is 81.2% (1X — Norwich win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,188 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Norwich to win57.3%

Draw23.8%

Swansea to win18.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Norwich win or draw81.2%

12 — any result other than a draw76.2%

X2 — draw or Swansea win42.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Norwich lead at half-time36.4%

Level at half-time43.2%

Swansea lead at half-time20.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Norwich ahead or level79.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Swansea ahead63.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2188 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Norwich: at least 11Actual: 13
Swansea: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Norwich: at least 5Actual: 5
Swansea: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Norwich score1.51

Attack: Norwich score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Swansea's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Swansea score1.09

Attack: Swansea score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Norwich's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%2–111.0%2–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2188 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 182 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.