Championship · England · Regular Season - 45

Sheffield Utd–Preston

2–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bramall Lane, Sheffield

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 18%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'PrestonL. Lindsay (assist: J. Thompson)
20'PrestonL. Lindsay (assist: A. Devine)
71'Sheffield UtdG. Hamer (penalty)
76'PrestonL. Dobbin (assist: A. Devine)
82'Sheffield UtdP. Bamford (assist: C. O'Hare)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sheffield Utd		Preston
17	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	6
12	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
10	Corners	5
3	Offsides	0
69%	Possession	31%
466	Passes	207
377	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sheffield Utd 1.81 · Preston 0.91. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Sheffield Utd 17 · Preston 12; on target 3 and 6.
Sheffield Utd kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

A. Kitchen→

3.09

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.0%: “Sheffield Utd to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.05 for Sheffield Utd, 1.08 for Preston.
The highest double chance value is 82.3% (1X — Sheffield Utd win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,188 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sheffield Utd to win60.0%

Draw22.3%

Preston to win17.7%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Sheffield Utd lead at half-time44.5%

Level at half-time40.7%

Preston lead at half-time14.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Sheffield Utd ahead or level85.2%

12 — not level at half-time59.3%

X2 — level or Preston ahead55.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2188 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sheffield Utd: at least 8Actual: 12
Preston: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Sheffield Utd: at least 7Actual: 10
Preston: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sheffield Utd score1.81

Attack: Sheffield Utd score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Preston's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.81 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Preston score0.91

Attack: Preston score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Utd's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–111.0%1–110.8%2–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.