Championship · England · Regular Season - 45

West Brom–Ipswich

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The Hawthorns, West Bromwich

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
West Brom		Ipswich
12	Shots	13
6	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
2	Corners	6
4	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
361	Passes	406
283	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: West Brom 1.20 · Ipswich 1.28. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots West Brom 12 · Ipswich 13; on target 6 and 3.

Referee

M. Donohue→

4.37

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

101

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.9%: “Ipswich to win”. Second comes “West Brom to win” at 30.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for West Brom, 1.34 for Ipswich.
The highest double chance value is 71.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,185 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

West Brom to win30.1%

Draw29.0%

Ipswich to win40.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

West Brom lead at half-time30.9%

Level at half-time43.0%

Ipswich lead at half-time26.1%

First-half double chance

1X — West Brom ahead or level73.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or Ipswich ahead69.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2185 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

West Brom: at least 11Actual: 6
Ipswich: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

West Brom: at least 4Actual: 2
Ipswich: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals West Brom score1.20

Attack: West Brom score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ipswich's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ipswich score1.28

Attack: Ipswich score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: West Brom concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%0–110.5%1–29.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.