Championship · England · Regular Season - 44

Oxford United–Wrexham

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 21 April 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'WrexhamJ. Windass (assist: S. Smith)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Oxford United		Wrexham
19	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	4
13	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	5
0	Offsides	4
45%	Possession	55%
349	Passes	449
248	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Oxford United 1.29 · Wrexham 1.17. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Oxford United 19 · Wrexham 11; on target 4 and 4.
Wrexham kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

M. Donohue→

4.36

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

100

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.5%: “Oxford United to win”. Second comes “Wrexham to win” at 31.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for Oxford United, 1.15 for Wrexham.
The highest double chance value is 70.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,172 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Oxford United to win39.5%

Draw29.2%

Wrexham to win31.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Oxford United lead at half-time29.4%

Level at half-time42.5%

Wrexham lead at half-time28.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Oxford United ahead or level71.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or Wrexham ahead70.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2172 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Oxford United: at least 9Actual: 11
Wrexham: at least 9Actual: 16

Corners

Oxford United: at least 4Actual: 9
Wrexham: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Oxford United score1.29

Attack: Oxford United score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Wrexham's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Wrexham score1.17

Attack: Wrexham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Oxford United's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–010.3%2–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.