Championship · England · Regular Season - 44

Leicester–Hull City

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 21 April 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'Hull CityL. Millar
52'LeicesterJ. James (penalty)
54'LeicesterLuke Thomas (assist: B. De Cordova-Reid)
63'Hull CityO. McBurnie (assist: L. Millar)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Leicester		Hull City
20	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	8
0	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
382	Passes	352
275	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Leicester 1.49 · Hull City 1.20. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Leicester 20 · Hull City 13; on target 4 and 4.

Referee

T. Kirk→

4.23

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.4%: “Leicester to win”. Second comes “Hull City to win” at 28.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for Leicester, 1.25 for Hull City.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,172 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Leicester to win44.4%

Draw26.7%

Hull City to win28.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Leicester lead at half-time30.1%

Level at half-time41.0%

Hull City lead at half-time28.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Leicester ahead or level71.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or Hull City ahead69.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2172 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Leicester: at least 9Actual: 11
Hull City: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Leicester: at least 5Actual: 9
Hull City: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Leicester score1.49

Attack: Leicester score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hull City concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hull City score1.20

Attack: Hull City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Leicester's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%2–110.1%1–08.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.