Championship · England · Regular Season - 43

Ipswich–Middlesbrough

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'MiddlesbroughD. Strelec (assist: A. Browne)
30'IpswichK. McAteer (assist: Iván Azón)
64'MiddlesbroughT. Conway
86'IpswichJ. Clarke (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ipswich		Middlesbrough
17	Shots	15
5	Shots on target	9
11	Shots inside the box	10
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	3
4	Offsides	2
54%	Possession	46%
469	Passes	404
385	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ipswich 1.46 · Middlesbrough 1.12. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Ipswich 17 · Middlesbrough 15; on target 5 and 9.

Referee

J. Gillett→

3.89

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.0%: “Ipswich to win”. Second comes “Middlesbrough to win” at 30.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Ipswich, 1.25 for Middlesbrough.
The highest double chance value is 72.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,171 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ipswich to win42.0%

Draw27.4%

Middlesbrough to win30.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Ipswich win or draw69.5%

12 — any result other than a draw72.6%

X2 — draw or Middlesbrough win58.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.4%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Ipswich lead at half-time31.6%

Level at half-time43.3%

Middlesbrough lead at half-time25.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Ipswich ahead or level74.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Middlesbrough ahead68.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2171 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ipswich: at least 11Actual: 10
Middlesbrough: at least 10Actual: 16

Corners

Ipswich: at least 5Actual: 6
Middlesbrough: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals52.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ipswich score1.46

Attack: Ipswich score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Middlesbrough concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Middlesbrough score1.12

Attack: Middlesbrough score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Ipswich concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%2–19.8%1–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2171 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 87 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.