Championship · England · Regular Season - 43

Swansea–Southampton

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'SwanseaM. Stamenić (assist: Z. Vipotnik)
57'SouthamptonS. Charles (assist: Léo Scienza)
90'SouthamptonC. Archer (assist: C. Jander)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Swansea		Southampton
10	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	6
6	Shots inside the box	14
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	12
0	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
408	Passes	504
310	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Swansea 1.21 · Southampton 1.46. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Swansea 10 · Southampton 16; on target 3 and 6.
Southampton kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

O. Langford→

3.38

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.2%: “Southampton to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.08 for Swansea, 1.77 for Southampton.
The highest double chance value is 78.3% (X2 — draw or Southampton win).
These values were computed from 2,164 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Swansea to win21.7%

Draw25.1%

Southampton to win53.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

3	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Swansea win or draw46.8%

12 — any result other than a draw74.9%

X2 — draw or Southampton win78.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.1%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Swansea lead at half-time19.2%

Level at half-time42.3%

Southampton lead at half-time38.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Swansea ahead or level61.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.7%

X2 — level or Southampton ahead80.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2164 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Swansea: at least 10Actual: 3
Southampton: at least 12Actual: 7

Corners

Swansea: at least 4Actual: 4
Southampton: at least 4Actual: 12

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Swansea score1.21

Attack: Swansea score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Southampton's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Southampton score1.46

Attack: Southampton score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Swansea's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%1–210.8%0–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2164 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 88 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.