Championship · England · Regular Season - 43

Sheffield Wednesday–Charlton

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Hillsborough, Sheffield

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

49'CharltonM. Godden (assist: L. Jones)
76'Sheffield WednesdayG. Otegbayo (assist: J. Lowe)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sheffield Wednesday		Charlton
9	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	11
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	2
0	Offsides	4
67%	Possession	33%
518	Passes	265
426	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sheffield Wednesday 1.10 · Charlton 1.35. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Sheffield Wednesday 9 · Charlton 12; on target 2 and 3.
Sheffield Wednesday kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

T. Parsons→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.6%: “Charlton to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.92 for Sheffield Wednesday, 1.47 for Charlton.
The highest double chance value is 77.8% (X2 — draw or Charlton win).
These values were computed from 2,164 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sheffield Wednesday to win22.2%

Draw28.2%

Charlton to win49.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sheffield Wednesday lead at half-time27.0%

Level at half-time47.8%

Charlton lead at half-time25.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Sheffield Wednesday ahead or level74.8%

12 — not level at half-time52.2%

X2 — level or Charlton ahead73.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2164 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sheffield Wednesday: at least 9Actual: 14
Charlton: at least 10Actual: 16

Corners

Sheffield Wednesday: at least 5Actual: 7
Charlton: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sheffield Wednesday score1.10

Attack: Sheffield Wednesday score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Charlton's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Charlton score1.35

Attack: Charlton score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Wednesday concede 40% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%0–112.8%0–210.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.