Championship · England · Regular Season - 43

Derby–Oxford United

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Pride Park Stadium, Derby

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'DerbyJ. Banel (assist: S. Szmodics)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Derby		Oxford United
15	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	0
8	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	3
0	Offsides	2
67%	Possession	33%
507	Passes	247
440	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Derby 1.46 · Oxford United 0.94. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Derby 15 · Oxford United 11; on target 2 and 0.
Derby kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

S. Allison→

3.87

yellows per match

0.05

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.4%: “Derby to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for Derby, 1.03 for Oxford United.
The highest double chance value is 75.9% (1X — Derby win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,161 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Derby to win48.4%

Draw27.5%

Oxford United to win24.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Derby win or draw75.9%

12 — any result other than a draw72.5%

X2 — draw or Oxford United win51.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.5%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Derby lead at half-time43.1%

Level at half-time41.0%

Oxford United lead at half-time15.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Derby ahead or level84.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or Oxford United ahead56.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2161 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Derby: at least 10Actual: 14
Oxford United: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Derby: at least 6Actual: 7
Oxford United: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals47.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Derby score1.46

Attack: Derby score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Oxford United's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Oxford United score0.94

Attack: Oxford United score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Derby's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–011.0%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2161 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 88 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.