Championship · England · Regular Season - 43

Millwall–QPR

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The Den, London

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'MillwallD. Mazou-Sacko
17'MillwallC. Neghli (assist: D. Mazou-Sacko)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Millwall		QPR
11	Shots	5
4	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	10
4	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
302	Passes	416
210	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Millwall 1.46 · QPR 1.05. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Millwall 11 · QPR 5; on target 4 and 1.
QPR kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

T. Nield→

3.98

yellows per match

0.04

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.6%: “Millwall to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.83 for Millwall, 1.01 for QPR.
The highest double chance value is 80.9% (1X — Millwall win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,161 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Millwall to win56.6%

Draw24.3%

QPR to win19.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

6	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Millwall win or draw80.9%

12 — any result other than a draw75.7%

X2 — draw or QPR win43.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.3%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Millwall lead at half-time37.9%

Level at half-time44.1%

QPR lead at half-time18.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Millwall ahead or level82.0%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or QPR ahead62.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2161 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Millwall: at least 11Actual: 6
QPR: at least 9Actual: 14

Corners

Millwall: at least 5Actual: 6
QPR: at least 3Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Millwall score1.46

Attack: Millwall score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: QPR's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals QPR score1.05

Attack: QPR score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Millwall's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%2–110.9%2–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2161 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 180 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.