Championship · England · Regular Season - 45

Southampton–Blackburn

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 14 April 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'SouthamptonC. Larin (assist: C. Archer)
43'SouthamptonR. Manning
86'SouthamptonC. Archer (assist: Léo Scienza)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Southampton		Blackburn
16	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
621	Passes	432
549	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Southampton 1.69 · Blackburn 0.93. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Southampton 16 · Blackburn 8; on target 7 and 3.
Southampton kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

J. Smith→

4.16

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.7%: “Southampton to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.95 for Southampton, 0.80 for Blackburn.
The highest double chance value is 86.8% (1X — Southampton win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,158 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Southampton to win64.7%

Draw22.1%

Blackburn to win13.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	5

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Southampton lead at half-time43.2%

Level at half-time42.4%

Blackburn lead at half-time14.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Southampton ahead or level85.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Blackburn ahead56.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2158 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Southampton: at least 9Actual: 8
Blackburn: at least 11Actual: 5

Corners

Southampton: at least 5Actual: 7
Blackburn: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Southampton score1.69

Attack: Southampton score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Blackburn's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Blackburn score0.93

Attack: Blackburn score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Southampton's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.5%1–011.7%1–111.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.