Championship · England · Regular Season - 42

Oxford United–Watford

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'Oxford UnitedM. Peart-Harris
90'Oxford UnitedM. Harris

Match statistics

Match statistics
Oxford United		Watford
15	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
10	Corners	5
1	Offsides	2
33%	Possession	67%
211	Passes	448
126	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Oxford United 1.22 · Watford 1.15. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Oxford United 15 · Watford 12; on target 6 and 3.
Watford kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

S. Martin→

4.50

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.5%: “Oxford United to win”. Second comes “Watford to win” at 31.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Oxford United, 1.16 for Watford.
The highest double chance value is 71.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,150 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Oxford United to win39.5%

Draw29.0%

Watford to win31.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Oxford United lead at half-time33.9%

Level at half-time43.4%

Watford lead at half-time22.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Oxford United ahead or level77.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.6%

X2 — level or Watford ahead66.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2150 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Oxford United: at least 9Actual: 8
Watford: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Oxford United: at least 4Actual: 10
Watford: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Oxford United score1.22

Attack: Oxford United score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Watford's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Watford score1.15

Attack: Watford score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Oxford United's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–010.1%2–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.