Championship · England · Regular Season - 42

Stoke City–Blackburn

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'BlackburnA. Forshaw (assist: R. Alebiosu)
56'Stoke CityYuri Ribeiro (own goal)
87'Stoke CityA. Phillips · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Stoke City		Blackburn
10	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
59%	Possession	41%
475	Passes	321
399	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Stoke City 1.21 · Blackburn 1.14. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Stoke City 10 · Blackburn 11; on target 3 and 3.
Stoke City kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

R. Madley→

4.45

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.7%: “Stoke City to win”. Second comes “Blackburn to win” at 35.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.25 for Stoke City, 1.25 for Blackburn.
The highest double chance value is 70.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,150 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Stoke City to win35.7%

Draw29.1%

Blackburn to win35.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	8

5	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Stoke City lead at half-time36.1%

Level at half-time46.3%

Blackburn lead at half-time17.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Stoke City ahead or level82.4%

12 — not level at half-time53.7%

X2 — level or Blackburn ahead63.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2150 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Stoke City: at least 9Actual: 11
Blackburn: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Stoke City: at least 5Actual: 4
Blackburn: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Stoke City score1.21

Attack: Stoke City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Blackburn's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Blackburn score1.14

Attack: Blackburn score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Stoke City's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–09.4%0–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.