Championship · England · Regular Season - 42

Leicester–Swansea

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

53'SwanseaZ. Vipotnik (assist: Eom Ji-Sung)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Leicester		Swansea
19	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	1
13	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
12	Corners	2
3	Offsides	2
56%	Possession	44%
474	Passes	390
384	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Leicester 1.36 · Swansea 1.20. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Leicester 19 · Swansea 8; on target 6 and 1.
Leicester kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

S. Allison→

3.91

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.4%: “Leicester to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for Leicester, 1.09 for Swansea.
The highest double chance value is 76.5% (1X — Leicester win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,150 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Leicester to win50.4%

Draw26.2%

Swansea to win23.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Leicester win or draw76.5%

12 — any result other than a draw73.8%

X2 — draw or Swansea win49.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Leicester lead at half-time41.3%

Level at half-time39.9%

Swansea lead at half-time18.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Leicester ahead or level81.2%

12 — not level at half-time60.1%

X2 — level or Swansea ahead58.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2150 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Leicester: at least 11Actual: 12
Swansea: at least 9Actual: 14

Corners

Leicester: at least 5Actual: 12
Swansea: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals52.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Leicester score1.36

Attack: Leicester score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Swansea's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Swansea score1.20

Attack: Swansea score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Leicester's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–110.6%1–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2150 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 87 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.