Championship · England · Regular Season - 42

Norwich–Ipswich

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 38%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'IpswichJ. Philogene (penalty)
45'IpswichG. Hirst (assist: J. Greaves)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Norwich		Ipswich
15	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
13	Corners	1
0	Offsides	3
67%	Possession	33%
410	Passes	212
332	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Norwich 1.22 · Ipswich 1.43. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Norwich 15 · Ipswich 9; on target 3 and 5.
Norwich kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

A. Backhouse→

4.33

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.9%: “Ipswich to win”. Second comes “Norwich to win” at 33.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Norwich, 1.33 for Ipswich.
The highest double chance value is 71.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,147 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Norwich to win33.5%

Draw28.6%

Ipswich to win37.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	17

5	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Norwich win or draw62.1%

12 — any result other than a draw71.4%

X2 — draw or Ipswich win66.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–2

Norwich lead at half-time30.4%

Level at half-time43.4%

Ipswich lead at half-time26.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Norwich ahead or level73.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.6%

X2 — level or Ipswich ahead69.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2147 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Norwich: at least 11Actual: 16
Ipswich: at least 10Actual: 17

Corners

Norwich: at least 4Actual: 13
Ipswich: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals47.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Norwich score1.22

Attack: Norwich score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ipswich concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ipswich score1.43

Attack: Ipswich score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Norwich's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%0–19.2%1–29.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2147 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 85 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.