Championship · England · Regular Season - 42

West Brom–Millwall

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 10 April 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The Hawthorns, West Bromwich

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
West Brom		Millwall
16	Shots	11
1	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	5
1	Offsides	0
60%	Possession	40%
470	Passes	311
377	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: West Brom 1.36 · Millwall 1.06. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots West Brom 16 · Millwall 11; on target 1 and 3.
West Brom kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

L. Smith→

3.69

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.4%: “West Brom to win”. Second comes “Millwall to win” at 29.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.37 for West Brom, 1.14 for Millwall.
The highest double chance value is 71.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,146 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

West Brom to win41.4%

Draw28.8%

Millwall to win29.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	22

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

West Brom lead at half-time28.6%

Level at half-time46.4%

Millwall lead at half-time25.0%

First-half double chance

1X — West Brom ahead or level75.0%

12 — not level at half-time53.6%

X2 — level or Millwall ahead71.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2146 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

West Brom: at least 8Actual: 6
Millwall: at least 11Actual: 22

Corners

West Brom: at least 5Actual: 7
Millwall: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals West Brom score1.36

Attack: West Brom score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Millwall's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Millwall score1.06

Attack: Millwall score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: West Brom's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–010.3%2–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.