Championship · England · Regular Season - 41

Blackburn–West Brom

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 6 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 31%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Blackburn		West Brom
11	Shots	6
0	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
44%	Possession	56%
333	Passes	432
234	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Blackburn 1.17 · West Brom 1.12. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Blackburn 11 · West Brom 6; on target 0 and 3.
West Brom kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

R. Jones→

4.37

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

105

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.5%: “West Brom to win”. Second comes “Blackburn to win” at 32.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.10 for Blackburn, 1.17 for West Brom.
The highest double chance value is 69.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,136 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Blackburn to win32.9%

Draw30.6%

West Brom to win36.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Blackburn lead at half-time29.0%

Level at half-time45.8%

West Brom lead at half-time25.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Blackburn ahead or level74.8%

12 — not level at half-time54.2%

X2 — level or West Brom ahead71.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2136 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Blackburn: at least 10Actual: 8
West Brom: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

Blackburn: at least 4Actual: 4
West Brom: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Blackburn score1.17

Attack: Blackburn score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: West Brom's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals West Brom score1.12

Attack: West Brom score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Blackburn's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%0–111.2%1–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.