Championship · England · Regular Season - 41

Ipswich–Birmingham

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Monday, 6 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'BirminghamCarlos Vicente
41'IpswichB. Johnson (assist: Darnell Furlong)
45'IpswichK. McAteer (assist: G. Hirst)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ipswich		Birmingham
11	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	4
2	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
401	Passes	331
288	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ipswich 1.62 · Birmingham 0.95. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Ipswich 11 · Birmingham 9; on target 5 and 4.

Referee

A. Herczeg→

3.69

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.6%: “Ipswich to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.87 for Ipswich, 0.89 for Birmingham.
The highest double chance value is 84.1% (1X — Ipswich win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,136 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ipswich to win60.6%

Draw23.4%

Birmingham to win15.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	19

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Ipswich win or draw84.1%

12 — any result other than a draw76.6%

X2 — draw or Birmingham win39.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.4%).

First half

Actual: 2–1

Ipswich lead at half-time44.8%

Level at half-time40.2%

Birmingham lead at half-time15.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Ipswich ahead or level85.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or Birmingham ahead55.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2136 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ipswich: at least 9Actual: 11
Birmingham: at least 12Actual: 19

Corners

Ipswich: at least 5Actual: 6
Birmingham: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals52.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ipswich score1.62

Attack: Ipswich score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Birmingham's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Birmingham score0.95

Attack: Birmingham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ipswich concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%2–011.3%1–011.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2136 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 84 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.