Championship · England · Regular Season - 40

Coventry–Derby

3–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 3 April 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'CoventryF. Onyeka (assist: R. Esse)
38'DerbyB. Brereton (assist: M. Clarke)
68'CoventryJ. Rudoni
77'DerbyB. Brereton (penalty)
80'CoventryJ. Rudoni (assist: M. van Ewijk)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Coventry		Derby
13	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	3
13	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	1
0	Offsides	1
51%	Possession	49%
407	Passes	398
313	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Coventry 1.78 · Derby 0.93. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Coventry 13 · Derby 8; on target 7 and 3.

Referee

T. Nield→

4.02

yellows per match

0.04

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.7%: “Coventry to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.92 for Coventry, 0.97 for Derby.
The highest double chance value is 82.9% (1X — Coventry win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,133 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Coventry to win59.7%

Draw23.2%

Derby to win17.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Coventry win or draw82.9%

12 — any result other than a draw76.8%

X2 — draw or Derby win40.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.2%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Coventry lead at half-time48.1%

Level at half-time39.0%

Derby lead at half-time12.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Coventry ahead or level87.1%

12 — not level at half-time61.0%

X2 — level or Derby ahead51.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2133 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Coventry: at least 9Actual: 12
Derby: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Coventry: at least 5Actual: 6
Derby: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Coventry score1.78

Attack: Coventry score above the league average (41% more).

Opponent's defence: Derby's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Derby score0.93

Attack: Derby score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Coventry's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.7%2–111.0%2–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2133 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 85 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.