Championship · England · Regular Season - 40

Oxford United–Hull City

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 3 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Hull CityM. Belloumi (assist: S. Ajayi)
13'Oxford UnitedC. Brannagan (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Oxford United		Hull City
16	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
1	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
34%	Possession	66%
263	Passes	515
165	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Oxford United 1.34 · Hull City 1.22. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Oxford United 16 · Hull City 9; on target 4 and 2.
Hull City kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

O. Langford→

3.44

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.9%: “Oxford United to win”. Second comes “Hull City to win” at 32.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Oxford United, 1.25 for Hull City.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,124 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Oxford United to win39.9%

Draw28.0%

Hull City to win32.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Oxford United win or draw67.9%

12 — any result other than a draw72.0%

X2 — draw or Hull City win60.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.0%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Oxford United lead at half-time27.1%

Level at half-time41.7%

Hull City lead at half-time31.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Oxford United ahead or level68.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Hull City ahead72.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2124 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Oxford United: at least 9Actual: 10
Hull City: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Oxford United: at least 4Actual: 1
Hull City: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals50.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Oxford United score1.34

Attack: Oxford United score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hull City concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hull City score1.22

Attack: Hull City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Oxford United's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.5%1–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2124 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 85 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.