Championship · England · Regular Season - 39

Swansea–Coventry

0–3

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'CoventryB. Thomas-Asante (penalty)
38'CoventryM. Grimes
43'CoventryT. Sakamoto (assist: Joel Latibeaudiere)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Swansea		Coventry
11	Shots	14
2	Shots on target	7
8	Shots inside the box	12
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	7
2	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
431	Passes	353
339	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Swansea 1.13 · Coventry 1.49. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Swansea 11 · Coventry 14; on target 2 and 7.

Referee

S. Martin→

4.46

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.4%: “Coventry to win”. Second comes “Swansea to win” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Swansea, 1.50 for Coventry.
The highest double chance value is 72.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,122 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Swansea to win29.2%

Draw27.5%

Coventry to win43.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Swansea win or draw56.6%

12 — any result other than a draw72.5%

X2 — draw or Coventry win70.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–3

Swansea lead at half-time17.7%

Level at half-time42.6%

Coventry lead at half-time39.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Swansea ahead or level60.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or Coventry ahead82.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2122 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Swansea: at least 9Actual: 10
Coventry: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Swansea: at least 5Actual: 2
Coventry: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Swansea score1.13

Attack: Swansea score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Coventry's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Coventry score1.49

Attack: Coventry score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: Swansea's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–210.0%0–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2122 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 176 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.