Championship · England · Regular Season - 39

Charlton–Norwich

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The Valley, London

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'NorwichP. Mattsson (assist: A. Ahmed)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Charlton		Norwich
13	Shots	17
2	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	7
2	Offsides	1
40%	Possession	60%
290	Passes	460
205	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Charlton 1.19 · Norwich 1.27. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Charlton 13 · Norwich 17; on target 2 and 5.
Norwich kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

W. Finnie→

4.29

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.4%: “Norwich to win”. Second comes “Charlton to win” at 28.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.11 for Charlton, 1.38 for Norwich.
The highest double chance value is 71.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,115 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Charlton to win28.8%

Draw28.8%

Norwich to win42.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	6

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Charlton lead at half-time21.3%

Level at half-time46.2%

Norwich lead at half-time32.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Charlton ahead or level67.5%

12 — not level at half-time53.8%

X2 — level or Norwich ahead78.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2115 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Charlton: at least 10Actual: 7
Norwich: at least 9Actual: 6

Corners

Charlton: at least 4Actual: 7
Norwich: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Charlton score1.19

Attack: Charlton score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Norwich's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Norwich score1.27

Attack: Norwich score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Charlton's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%0–110.6%1–29.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.