Championship · England · Regular Season - 39

Hull City–Sheffield Wednesday

3–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'Sheffield WednesdayJ. Lowe
24'Hull CityM. Crooks (assist: K. Joseph)
45'Hull CityD. Iorfa (own goal)
58'Hull CityK. Joseph (assist: O. McBurnie)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hull City		Sheffield Wednesday
9	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	4
3	Offsides	1
51%	Possession	49%
428	Passes	406
322	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hull City 1.94 · Sheffield Wednesday 0.89. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Hull City 9 · Sheffield Wednesday 7; on target 5 and 3.

Referee

D. Whitestone→

3.28

yellows per match

0.05

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.8%: “Hull City to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.21 for Hull City, 0.77 for Sheffield Wednesday.
The highest double chance value is 89.8% (1X — Hull City win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,115 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hull City to win70.8%

Draw18.9%

Sheffield Wednesday to win10.2%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Hull City lead at half-time55.7%

Level at half-time36.4%

Sheffield Wednesday lead at half-time7.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Hull City ahead or level92.1%

12 — not level at half-time63.6%

X2 — level or Sheffield Wednesday ahead44.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2115 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hull City: at least 9Actual: 10
Sheffield Wednesday: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Hull City: at least 5Actual: 4
Sheffield Wednesday: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hull City score1.94

Attack: Hull City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Wednesday concede 39% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sheffield Wednesday score0.89

Attack: Sheffield Wednesday score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hull City concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.8%2–110.5%1–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.