Championship · England · Regular Season - 39

Sheffield Utd–Wrexham

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bramall Lane, Sheffield

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

49'Sheffield UtdA. Brooks
54'WrexhamJ. Windass (assist: S. Smith)
78'WrexhamS. Smith (assist: I. Kaboré)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sheffield Utd		Wrexham
20	Shots	10
7	Shots on target	4
14	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
8	Corners	5
2	Offsides	3
60%	Possession	40%
529	Passes	342
441	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sheffield Utd 1.64 · Wrexham 1.02. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Sheffield Utd 20 · Wrexham 10; on target 7 and 4.
Sheffield Utd kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

S. Allison→

3.92

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.7%: “Sheffield Utd to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.67 for Sheffield Utd, 1.13 for Wrexham.
The highest double chance value is 75.8% (1X — Sheffield Utd win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,115 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sheffield Utd to win49.7%

Draw26.0%

Wrexham to win24.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sheffield Utd lead at half-time45.9%

Level at half-time40.2%

Wrexham lead at half-time13.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Sheffield Utd ahead or level86.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or Wrexham ahead54.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2115 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sheffield Utd: at least 9Actual: 6
Wrexham: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Sheffield Utd: at least 6Actual: 8
Wrexham: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sheffield Utd score1.64

Attack: Sheffield Utd score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Wrexham's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Wrexham score1.02

Attack: Wrexham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Utd's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–110.6%1–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.