Championship · England · Regular Season - 39

Preston–Stoke City

3–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 20 March 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Deepdale, Preston

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Stoke CityS. Thomas (assist: J. Tchamadeu)
15'PrestonA. Devine (assist: A. Moran)
57'PrestonMilutin Osmajić (assist: L. Dobbin)
60'PrestonA. Devine (assist: Milutin Osmajić)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Preston		Stoke City
13	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	0
7	Corners	9
3	Offsides	0
46%	Possession	54%
339	Passes	402
221	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Preston 1.28 · Stoke City 1.19. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Preston 13 · Stoke City 13; on target 3 and 2.

Referee

F. Hallam→

3.78

yellows per match

0.04

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.9%: “Preston to win”. Second comes “Stoke City to win” at 31.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for Preston, 1.21 for Stoke City.
The highest double chance value is 71.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,111 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Preston to win39.9%

Draw28.4%

Stoke City to win31.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Preston lead at half-time24.4%

Level at half-time46.1%

Stoke City lead at half-time29.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Preston ahead or level70.4%

12 — not level at half-time53.9%

X2 — level or Stoke City ahead75.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2111 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Preston: at least 9Actual: 12
Stoke City: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

Preston: at least 4Actual: 7
Stoke City: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Preston score1.28

Attack: Preston score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Stoke City's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Stoke City score1.19

Attack: Stoke City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Preston's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%2–19.4%1–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.