Championship · England · Regular Season - 38

Coventry–Southampton

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 March 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

48'SouthamptonF. Downes
85'SouthamptonK. Matsuki (assist: J. Bree)
90'CoventryV. Torp (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Coventry		Southampton
20	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	3
18	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	5
3	Offsides	4
57%	Possession	43%
434	Passes	336
363	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Coventry 1.80 · Southampton 1.17. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Coventry 20 · Southampton 8; on target 6 and 3.
Coventry kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

F. Hallam→

3.73

yellows per match

0.05

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.2%: “Coventry to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for Coventry, 1.14 for Southampton.
The highest double chance value is 75.9% (1X — Coventry win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,098 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Coventry to win50.2%

Draw25.8%

Southampton to win24.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Coventry lead at half-time39.2%

Level at half-time41.4%

Southampton lead at half-time19.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Coventry ahead or level80.6%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Southampton ahead60.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2098 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Coventry: at least 10Actual: 13
Southampton: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Coventry: at least 5Actual: 7
Southampton: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Coventry score1.80

Attack: Coventry score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: Southampton's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.80 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Southampton score1.17

Attack: Southampton score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Coventry's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%2–110.6%1–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.