Championship · England · Regular Season - 38

Oxford United–Charlton

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 March 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

57'Oxford UnitedC. Brannagan (penalty)
90'CharltonC. Kelman (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Oxford United		Charlton
8	Shots	5
2	Shots on target	1
4	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
3	Corners	6
0	Offsides	0
38%	Possession	62%
245	Passes	393
151	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Oxford United 1.25 · Charlton 1.05. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Oxford United 8 · Charlton 5; on target 2 and 1.
Charlton kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

M. Donohue→

4.33

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.8%: “Oxford United to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Oxford United, 1.02 for Charlton.
The highest double chance value is 72.5% (1X — Oxford United win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,098 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Oxford United to win42.8%

Draw29.7%

Charlton to win27.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Oxford United lead at half-time38.4%

Level at half-time44.3%

Charlton lead at half-time17.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Oxford United ahead or level82.7%

12 — not level at half-time55.7%

X2 — level or Charlton ahead61.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2098 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Oxford United: at least 8Actual: 14
Charlton: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

Oxford United: at least 4Actual: 3
Charlton: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Oxford United score1.25

Attack: Oxford United score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Charlton's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Charlton score1.05

Attack: Charlton score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Oxford United's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–012.0%0–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.