Championship · England · Regular Season - 37

Norwich–Sheffield Utd

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 11 March 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 39%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'Sheffield UtdJ. Riedewald (assist: C. O'Hare)
68'NorwichJ. Stacey (assist: Jacob Wright)
84'NorwichForson Amankwah (assist: P. Maghoma)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Norwich		Sheffield Utd
19	Shots	6
7	Shots on target	2
14	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
11	Corners	4
2	Offsides	3
58%	Possession	42%
456	Passes	333
366	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Norwich 1.35 · Sheffield Utd 1.36. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Norwich 19 · Sheffield Utd 6; on target 7 and 2.
Norwich kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

B. Toner→

4.62

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.5%: “Norwich to win”. Second comes “Sheffield Utd to win” at 33.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Norwich, 1.32 for Sheffield Utd.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,091 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Norwich to win38.5%

Draw27.6%

Sheffield Utd to win33.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Norwich lead at half-time22.1%

Level at half-time43.7%

Sheffield Utd lead at half-time34.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Norwich ahead or level65.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or Sheffield Utd ahead77.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2091 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Norwich: at least 10Actual: 7
Sheffield Utd: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Norwich: at least 5Actual: 11
Sheffield Utd: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Norwich score1.35

Attack: Norwich score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Utd's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sheffield Utd score1.36

Attack: Sheffield Utd score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Norwich's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%2–19.4%1–28.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.