Championship · England · Regular Season - 37

West Brom–Southampton

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 11 March 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The Hawthorns, West Bromwich

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'West BromJ. Molumby (assist: D. Dike)
90'SouthamptonC. Larin (assist: S. Edozie)

Match statistics

Match statistics
West Brom		Southampton
13	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	3
0	Offsides	2
34%	Possession	66%
311	Passes	618
228	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: West Brom 1.28 · Southampton 1.33. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots West Brom 13 · Southampton 12; on target 6 and 4.
Southampton kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

B. Speedie→

2.00

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.5%: “Southampton to win”. Second comes “West Brom to win” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for West Brom, 1.47 for Southampton.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,091 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

West Brom to win29.7%

Draw27.7%

Southampton to win42.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

West Brom lead at half-time18.6%

Level at half-time42.4%

Southampton lead at half-time39.0%

First-half double chance

1X — West Brom ahead or level61.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Southampton ahead81.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2091 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

West Brom: at least 10Actual: 13
Southampton: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

West Brom: at least 5Actual: 5
Southampton: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals West Brom score1.28

Attack: West Brom score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Southampton's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Southampton score1.33

Attack: Southampton score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: West Brom's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–29.8%0–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.